CAGR of China’s Cold Chain Logistics Industry over 20% During 2017-2021

First, the CAGR of cold chain logistics industry will increase by 20% in the next 3 to 5 years, and the demand for cold-chain equipment will maintain steady growth.

The three stages in cold-chain equipment industry, namely, “the first kilometer”, “circulation and transportation” and “the last kilometer”, correspond to the pre-cooling equipment, cold storage equipment, refrigerated trucks/refrigerated container transport equipment, and “the last-kilometer equipment” respectively, of which cold storage and refrigerator truck are among the core equipment links. The “first and the last kilometer” links have large potential development space.

Second, there is no commercial scale demand for pre-cooling facilities.

There is large potential space in this industry, for the pre-cooling rate is only 30% in China, much lower than 95%, that in Europe and the U.S. Both supply end and demand end are highly dispersed, so it is difficult to form large-scale leading enterprises. As for the product form, there is no commercial scale demand at this stage.

The market size of cold storage equipment is about CNY 6 billion. Entering a stable growth stage, there will be large development potential in automatic cold storage market in the future. Total cold storage capacity was expected to be over 100 million cubic meters in 2016. The cold storage market of the year valued CNY 20 billion, of which the share of refrigeration equipment was about CNY 6 billion. It is expected that the average scale of the cold storage market will be CNY 20 billion per year in the next five years, and the highly-automatic three-dimensional cold storage may be the investment tendency. Daleng Holdings together with Yantai Moon have formed a monopolistic competition pattern in refrigeration equipment field.

Third, the market size of refrigerator trucks is CNY 8.5 billion, of which the share of cold machines is CNY 3.4 billion

It is expected that the CAGR of refrigerated truck market will be 10.5% in the next 5 years, which is expected to develop towards the light, multi-temperature and electric types. The reserves of refrigerated trucks was 93,400 in 2015, which was equivalent to a one-year growth in the U.S. or Europe, and reserves per capita was merely one-tenth that of Japan. The market size was over CNY 8 billion per year. It is estimated that the market size will reach CNY 15 billion per year with the CAGR being 11.8% in 2020. However, as the refrigeration technology being mature and the market competition being fierce, it will be hard to make profit from standardized products.

The “last kilometer” commercial mode of cold chain equipment remains to be explored. The potential market demand is large, the types and functions are abundant (including refrigerated distribution trucks, refrigerator/freezer, refrigerated incubator, self-pickup cabinet), and the gross profit rate is high. However, the demand for equipment in the “last kilometer” is limited by the economic cost of cold-chain delivery, therefore the present market is still at the exploration stage of commercial mode.

 

Forecast on Market of Cold Storage in China, 2017-2020

2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Cold Storage Capacity (10 Thousand Tons) 3320 3710 4081 4448 4804 5140 5449
Cold Storage Capacity (10 Thousand Cubic Meters) 8300 9275 10295 11325 12344 13332 14265
New Cold Storage Capacity (10 Thousand Cubic Meters) 2273 975 1020 1030 1019 988 933
Cold Storage Market (CNY 100 Million) 450 195 204 206 204 198 187
Design 5 2 2 2 2 2 2
Refrigeration Equipment 131 57 59 60 59 57 54
Compressor Set 37 16 17 17 17 16 15
Civil Construction Type and Insulation 315 137 143 144 143 138 131

Source: CRI

 

Forecast on Refrigerator Truck Market in China, 2017-2020

2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Refrigerator Truck Reserves (Million Cars) 6.77 9.34 11.41 13.58 16.07 19.06 22.50
New Refrigerator Trucks (Car) 18953 19711 20700 21682 24935 29921 34409
Refrigerator Truck Market (CNY 100 Million) 81 85 89 93 107 129 148
Refrigerator (CNY 100 Million) 33 34 36 37 42 51 57

Source: CRI

 

Related Reports:

Research Report on Cold Chain Logistics Industry in China, 2017-2021

CRI estimates that in 2016 in China, over 130 million tons of goods were transported and distributed via cold chain logistics and the market size was over CNY 130 billion.