Analysis on Global Natural Rubber Output Volume

Major producers of natural rubber are Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Vietnam and China, the total output volume of which accounts for 84% of the globe. The output volume, import & export and demand of these countries are as follows.

In terms of the output volume, Thailand and Indonesia are the largest producers of natural rubber globally. The output volume of Thailand was 4.5 million tons in 2016 while that of Indonesia was 3.157 million tons. The two countries both consume little natural rubber which only accounts for 10%-20% of the total output volume. Most of their natural rubber is for export.

Malaysia, India, China and Vietnam form the secondary group globally in terms of their output volume. Vietnam has a high growth rate of output volume which has exceeded India and Malaysia in recent years. Malaysia’s output volume has been in decline in recent years, which was657 thousand tons in 2016. Part of its demand was met by import. The country imported 866 thousand tons of rubber in 2016. The production of latex gloves accounts for 70% of the demand for natural rubber in Malaysia. Vietnam’s output volume of rubber can meet the domestic demand and export. India and China are the major importers among the rubber producers. The tire and vehicle industry has a large demand for rubber due to the huge population, and the dependence ratio  of imported rubber in India and China reaches 40% and 80% respectively. China mainly imports rubber from Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam. Its imported rubber from Thailand added up to 2.564 million tons in 2016. Hence, the prices in Thailand rubber production region, weather, rubber export policies and subsidy together exert great influence upon the rubber market.

According to the latest data released by IRSG, it is expected that the global natural rubber output volume will reach 13.855 million tons in 2017, representing a YOY growth rate of 5.6%. The output volume of Asia-Pacific region will increase by 5.3%; to be specific, output volume of Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia will be 4.464 million, 3.04 million, 1.13 million and 888 thousand tons respectively and the corresponding YOY growth rate will be 2.9%, 3.1%, 12.4% and -0.6%.

China’s output volume will reach 1.189 million tons, up by 9.2% YOY. Apart from that, the data indicates that in 2017, the output volume in Africa and South America will be 671 thousand and364 thousand tons respectively, corresponding to the YOY growth rate of 11.5% and 4.3%.



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