Analysis on Supply and Demand of Electrolytic Aluminum in China, 2018

In 2017, the supply-side reform brought aluminum to the spotlight and also constantly lifted its price. Since 2000, the global supply and demand for electrolytic aluminum has increased significantly, from 24 million tons that year to the current volume of 63 million tons, with an increase of 160%. More than 80% of the increase came from China. Now China’s electrolytic aluminum production and sales account for over 50% of the world’s total. In 2017, the output of electrolytic aluminum in China was 14.8 times of that in 2000, with the CAGR up to 17.2%. It is expected that by 2018, supply-side reforms will limit the growth rate of new production capacity.

Related report: Research Report on Electrolytic Aluminum Industry of China, 2018-2022 

Chart New Production Capacity (10 thousand/year) of Electrolytic Aluminum in China

Enterprise Start/End of Enlarging Production Capacity Note Production Capacity in Operation New Production Capacity Capacity Put into Production in 2017 Capacity Put into Production in 2018
Guangxi Suyuan Investment Co., Ltd. Q1 2017 Put into production 10 10 10 0
Inner Mongolia Jinlian Aluminum Co., Ltd. Q1 2017 Put into production 100 5 5 0
Shandong Weiqiao Aluminum Co., Ltd. Q1 2017 Put into production 750 50 50 0
Jinghongyuan Induatrial Co., Ltd. Q2 2017 Put into production 5 5 5 0
Inner Mongolia Huayun Q2 2017 Put into production 62 78 50 28
Shandong Weiqiao Aluminum Co., Ltd. Q3 2017 Put into production 800 100 100 0
Gansu Zhongrui Aluminum Co., Ltd. Q3 2017 Under Construction 0 10 0 10
East Hope Q3 2017 Stagnation 160 20 0 0
Xinjiang Jiarun Resource Holding Limited Q3 2017 Stagnation 60 30 0 0
Guangxi Hualei Q3 2017 Electricity construction 0 40 20 20
Guizhou Huaren Q3 2017 Electricity construction 0 50 25 25
China Aluminum Huarun Co., Ltd. Q4 2017 Under Construction 0 50 25 25
Inner Mongolia Mengtai Q4 2017 Under Construction 0 50 10 10
Guangxi Yinhai Aluminum Co., Ltd Q4 2017 Under Construction 25 25 10 15
Xinjiang Qiya Aluminum Electricity Co., Ltd. Q4 2017 Under Construction 80 38 10 28
Shaanxi MEIXIN Industry Investment Co., Ltd. Q4 2017 Under Construction 0 30 10 20
Inner Mongolia Chuangyuan Metal Co., Ltd. Q4 2017 Under Construction 0 80 0 30
Inner Mongolia Jinlian Q4 2017 Postponed construction 105 55 0 0
Liaoning Zhongwang Aluminum Co., Ltd. Q1 2018 Under Construction 40 43 0 43
Shandong Xinfa Group Q1 2018 Postponed construction 220 100 0 0
Yunnan Zhaotong Q3 2018 Under Construction 0 35 0 20
Chongqing Energy Banner Co., Ltd. Q3 2018 Under Construction 34 17 0 17
East Hope Baotou Rare Earth Co., Ltd Q3 2018 Under Construction 88 39 0 39
Inner Mongolia Huayun Q3 2018 Under Construction 112 80 0 0
Guangxi Baise Mining Aluminium Co., Ltd Q3 2018 Under Construction 30 30 0 15
Guangxi Suyuan Q3 2018 Under Construction 10 30 0 15
Xingren Denggao Aluminum Co., Ltd. Q3 2018 Stagnation 10 10  -  -
Inner Mongolia Baiyinhua Q2 2019 Plan on construction 0 80 0 0
Guangxi Hualei Q2 2019 Plan on construction 0 40 0 0
Guizhou Huaren Q2 2019 Plan on construction 0 50 0 0
China Aluminum Ningxia Energy Group Limited Q4 2019 Plan on construction 0 45 0 0

Source: Public Data

In 2017, the supply-side reform reached its summit, driving up the price of aluminum. Underpinned by the fundamental analysis, the price is predicated to maintain at a high level and may hit a new record, which lifts up the price of electrolytic aluminum.

Related report: Research Report on Electrolytic Aluminum Industry of China, 2018-2022 

Chart Supply and Demand of China’s Electrolytic Aluminum Industry (10 thousand, ton)

2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Production Volume 3058 3180 3650 3780 3980 4180
Net Import Volume 12 8 7 5 5 5
Apparent Consumption 3070 3188 3657 3785 3985 4185
Inventory Gap 75 -65 100 -20 -48 -50
Consumption Volume 2995 3253 3557 3805 4033 4235

Source: Public Data

Related report: Research Report on Electrolytic Aluminum Industry of China, 2018-2022